Another day, another displacement
How long will Europe's welcome mat stay out?
Time to read: under 4 minutes
The Ukrainian crisis has a clear demographic element (several actually, but let’s focus on one at a time): migration. Specifically, forced migration. But Ukraine isn’t the only migration crisis and across the pond the US still grapples with its own asylum issues.
Here are a few things to ponder about displacement.
European states have rolled out the welcome mat for millions of Ukrainians but I’ve been wondering, how long will their generosity last? Most states (including the UK) have agreed to host and financially support displaced Ukrainians for three years. That’s going to involve some serious cash and sustained good will. I worry about system overload.
We know European states have been hosting Ukrainians for years now, particularly after the 2014 invasion of Crimea. Here’s how first-time applicants for asylum from Ukraine fared in 2016:
Just 24% were approved for asylum, just higher than Russians who applied. Compare those low percentages to the 98% of Syrians who applied. We all know these decisions are linked to politics—will approval rates be higher in the coming years because Europe wants to send a stronger ideological message?
Miriam Jordan from the NYT reported that a family of four Indians froze to death trying to cross into the United States via Canada, just 15 yards from the border.
There are a few complex elements to this story. The family had paid a smuggler, a common practice, but were abandoned. As one of the books I enjoy best on this subject describes, smugglers are at once saviors and villains. And why had they left India in the first place? The parents, both teachers, had lost their jobs because of the pandemic. From here the story is fuzzy. It seems the father, Jagdish, may have gotten a visa to go to the US. But if so, it’s unclear why they would need to be smuggled into the US. As we know, economic stress isn’t a qualifying reason for asylum so if that was their plan it might not have worked out.
Chinese and Indian asylum seekers actually had the highest acceptance rates in the US in FY2020, while those nationalities who dominated the headlines about border crisis—Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Mexico—had the lowest acceptance rates. For each, only somewhere between 13-18% were granted.
Two things that might at first glance seem contradictory are true about migration. One: pressures for migration are strong and aren't going anywhere over the next few decades. As the US has tried to close its southern border, the migrant flows are redirecting to other points (in this case the northern border). Think of it like a flow of water in a stream that diverts when it hits an obstacle. We saw the same dynamic in Europe during the 2015 migrant crisis when various land routes from the east substituted for sea routes in the south. But…
Two: population is a strong force, but politics are stronger. As I describe in my new book (out 3/29!), just because more people want or need to immigrate doesn't mean states will be forced to open their borders, not even liberal states. If states really want to regulate migration and are willing to commit extensive resources to the task they can do so. And would-be migrants like the Patels may die in the process.
Data-driven research doesn’t mean much if we can’t effectively communicate that data with the world. I loved Making Numbers Count: The Art and Science of Communicating Numbers by Chip Heath and Karla Starr. This is one for the reference section in your office for sure. Great examples of how to help readers make sense of numbers make this perfect for the classroom as well.
I’m always frustrated that we don’t have the vocabulary to talk about population aging in a positive or even neutral manner (demographic DECLINE, anyone?). What I love about Bradley Schurman’s accounts (IG - Twitter) is that they flip the doom and gloom narrative and showcase thriving older people to get the conversation started on opportunities for aging populations.
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