What US Congress needs to know about population trends

Our new report spells it out

The reason women’s labor force participation has declined since 2019 is entirely because of declines in the 55+ segment of the female population.

In 8 Billion and Counting, I argued that demography is a lens through which you can read the world. No understanding of the world is complete without including population dynamics. Building on that idea, I contributed to a report that’s out today through the Wilson Center aimed at raising awareness of demographic issues for US Congress.

The report, Population Trends and the Future of US Competitiveness, grew out of a Congressional Masterclass on demography that I helped my colleagues at Wilson put together this past summer as one of their Global Fellows. Staffers from both sides of the aisle attended and it was fascinating to see where their concerns overlapped and where they diverged, although most participants were reticent to share views, preferring instead to absorb the information our series of speakers relayed. The event and report were sponsored by the Population Institute. Here are some annotated takeaways:

One big area to flag is the increasing demand for care work in the US. Many of today’s retirees are themselves taking care of older relatives and as the peak of the large baby boomer cohort is now turning 65, the US will see a spike in demand for direct care workers in the coming decades. But there’s a shortage of these workers and the sector isn’t attracting folks because it’s so low paid, given that much of the funds come from federal or state governments. States like Maine, which is not only the demographically oldest state in the US but also heavily rural, have huge care gaps. According to Jess Maurer from the Maine Council on Aging, whom I interviewed last week, women, especially, sometimes leave high-skilled or higher-paying jobs to perform care work for older relatives because they can’t find any help. The result is a huge economic ding to both their household income and the local economy. For example, if a woman making $100,000 a year leaves her job to perform care work for her parents that someone else could do for $45,000 a year, that’s a loss in terms of both income security for the woman, who won’t be paying into her own Social Security or retirement funds, and of tax resources for the community. Given how many people there are between 55-64 (see Number of the Week), it’s important to address their unique labor market dynamics.

Check out this graphic from page 6 of the report. Amazing numbers and cool viz.

Another topic to flag is youthful countries, whose age structures provide a tremendous opportunity (they’ll provide the world’s future workforce) but also a challenge in terms of peace and development. The number of people aged 15-59 years old globally will grow by 676 million, net, between 2023 and 2050. That same population in Africa will grow by 686 million, meaning that much of the world’s future growth comes from Africa, whose population increases offset losses elsewhere. It is crucial to ensure this workforce has the opportunities needed to be most productive. We walk through some of the research and implications on pages 7-8 of the report.

And what about migration? I’m personally pessimistic about the ability of US Congress to institute immigration reform that would meet the labor and humanitarian needs of the US while also being efficient and humane. It’s just politically infeasible right now. So, given that the migration issue is more political than demographic, we didn’t discuss the border issues in our report but instead looked at migration as an adaptation strategy and the connections between migration and climate change.

Thanks to Dorothée Lebrun for commenting on my last post of 2023, “Four trends to watch in 2024,” and bringing her stunning photography to my attention. She is one of a select group of photographers participating in a project called 1in6by2030 initiated by Ed Kashi, Sara Terry, Ilvy Njiokiktjien, to visualize the world’s aging population, drawing much-needed attention to its diversity and dynamism. You can read about her contributions to the project on her Substack.