Remember also, countries like Israel won't have anything to do with Pfizer, aka, the mRNA jab. Same with China and others. They knew better. Americans are screwed and now it's too late, sadly enough. There's a reason why they asked for immunity first.
Check out carefully the discrepancy between countries super vaxxed vs the ones least vaxxed and there you'll have the answer. And you haven't seen nothing yet. Then you have the huge problem with EMFs and the monster of 5G (6G coming soon, as well). Don't let the liars tell you these are conspiracy theories. The proof is in front of your noses. Do your research. :)
I'm late to this, sorry! But I wonder if rising productivity growth can boost the fertility rate? Periods of industrial growth have generally led to population booms and some scholars have made the connection. I must admit to being in the techno-optimist/liberal natalist camp so I hope the hypothetical fourth industrial revolution and the green transition can give us a miracle. As for the values gap, most polls/studies have shown that a majority of women have less kids than they would like to have. Would love your take on this and thanks again for your wonderful work Dr. Sciubba!
Thanks! By what means do you think rising productivity might help? I'm thinking through this along with you--would love your thoughts. I suppose if it meant more money in pockets and a cheaper standard of living then we'd see some movement. If it meant fewer hours spent working in the US maybe a tiny bump then, too? But it's that values piece that gets me. I don't know if it would shift the culture to be more favorable to children. I am skeptical of those surveys because the number of children we say we want really changes throughout our lifecourse. I do believe we are having fewer than we want (I buy the thesis, generally), but I am not sure the gap is as large as reported. I talked about this a bit in the second half of my interview on the Ezra Klein Show that came out yesterday.
Interesting! Are you familiar with "pro-natal" movement and its recent revival? I'm really fearful of the ways that anti-gender fascists (religious nationalists) are beginning to use falling birthrates in the US and around the world as justification for rolling the clock back on family planning efforts, abortion access, birth control policy, women's health more broadly, etc.
I'm following them with great interest. It seems there are at least a few vocal pronatal camps these days. You mention one, and I'd add those technologists who want to see highly educated people reproduce at higher rates, those who aren't aiming to roll back rights but do want to see higher reproduction and an emphasis on the traditional family for religious reasons, and leaders who want to see higher reproduction to gain national power. As many flavors of pronatal as antinatal, that's for sure!
Good news! (despite the misleading heading). However, our global population is still above replacement (however slightly) and adds annually about 75 million more humans. Most importantly, we are a very long way from reducing our numbers to a level that allows more-than-human life the living space and resources it needs. Our global population is grossly and unjustly out of balance with the natural world. https://scaledown.substack.com/p/this-isnt-normal
I often use the term "scaling down" myself so I love that framing, but I don't get how the focus is still on total population numbers and not on consumption. It's our standards of living and focus on economic growth at all costs that's the problem, right?
Hi Jennifer, Population levels and consumption levels are obviously tied to one another. I focus on both, but probably more so on the latter since overconsumption is now outrunning overpopulation. But, especially as a wildlife biologist, I've also see what increases in human numbers do to more-than-human life, from my own observations and those of others. And when my neighbors have a baby, how in short order family consumption rises and then accelerates. Keep up the good work, Tony
Why do Israel and Gaza have such high birthrates contributing to a very young population and the need for more housing in a geographically-constrained area?
I've mostly seen the argument that what's considered "normal" in a community matters a lot. With those who are very religious having larger families in Israel, larger families become the norm and that spills over to secular groups. But fertility is falling. The Times of Israel reports: "Between 2018 and 2022, the average fertility rate for Jews dropped from 3.17 to 3.03 children per woman, according to the Taub Center’s demography expert, Prof. Alex Weinreb. Among Muslim and Christian women, the decline was greater — from 3.20 to 2.91 among Muslims, and from 2.06 to 1.68 among Christians. Among Druze women, the decrease was from 2.16 to 1.85." However, I haven't seen a good stat for secular Jewish TFR in Israel in a few years.
Remember also, countries like Israel won't have anything to do with Pfizer, aka, the mRNA jab. Same with China and others. They knew better. Americans are screwed and now it's too late, sadly enough. There's a reason why they asked for immunity first.
Check out carefully the discrepancy between countries super vaxxed vs the ones least vaxxed and there you'll have the answer. And you haven't seen nothing yet. Then you have the huge problem with EMFs and the monster of 5G (6G coming soon, as well). Don't let the liars tell you these are conspiracy theories. The proof is in front of your noses. Do your research. :)
I'm late to this, sorry! But I wonder if rising productivity growth can boost the fertility rate? Periods of industrial growth have generally led to population booms and some scholars have made the connection. I must admit to being in the techno-optimist/liberal natalist camp so I hope the hypothetical fourth industrial revolution and the green transition can give us a miracle. As for the values gap, most polls/studies have shown that a majority of women have less kids than they would like to have. Would love your take on this and thanks again for your wonderful work Dr. Sciubba!
Thanks! By what means do you think rising productivity might help? I'm thinking through this along with you--would love your thoughts. I suppose if it meant more money in pockets and a cheaper standard of living then we'd see some movement. If it meant fewer hours spent working in the US maybe a tiny bump then, too? But it's that values piece that gets me. I don't know if it would shift the culture to be more favorable to children. I am skeptical of those surveys because the number of children we say we want really changes throughout our lifecourse. I do believe we are having fewer than we want (I buy the thesis, generally), but I am not sure the gap is as large as reported. I talked about this a bit in the second half of my interview on the Ezra Klein Show that came out yesterday.
Interesting! Are you familiar with "pro-natal" movement and its recent revival? I'm really fearful of the ways that anti-gender fascists (religious nationalists) are beginning to use falling birthrates in the US and around the world as justification for rolling the clock back on family planning efforts, abortion access, birth control policy, women's health more broadly, etc.
I'm following them with great interest. It seems there are at least a few vocal pronatal camps these days. You mention one, and I'd add those technologists who want to see highly educated people reproduce at higher rates, those who aren't aiming to roll back rights but do want to see higher reproduction and an emphasis on the traditional family for religious reasons, and leaders who want to see higher reproduction to gain national power. As many flavors of pronatal as antinatal, that's for sure!
Good news! (despite the misleading heading). However, our global population is still above replacement (however slightly) and adds annually about 75 million more humans. Most importantly, we are a very long way from reducing our numbers to a level that allows more-than-human life the living space and resources it needs. Our global population is grossly and unjustly out of balance with the natural world. https://scaledown.substack.com/p/this-isnt-normal
I often use the term "scaling down" myself so I love that framing, but I don't get how the focus is still on total population numbers and not on consumption. It's our standards of living and focus on economic growth at all costs that's the problem, right?
Hi Jennifer, Population levels and consumption levels are obviously tied to one another. I focus on both, but probably more so on the latter since overconsumption is now outrunning overpopulation. But, especially as a wildlife biologist, I've also see what increases in human numbers do to more-than-human life, from my own observations and those of others. And when my neighbors have a baby, how in short order family consumption rises and then accelerates. Keep up the good work, Tony
Why do Israel and Gaza have such high birthrates contributing to a very young population and the need for more housing in a geographically-constrained area?
I've mostly seen the argument that what's considered "normal" in a community matters a lot. With those who are very religious having larger families in Israel, larger families become the norm and that spills over to secular groups. But fertility is falling. The Times of Israel reports: "Between 2018 and 2022, the average fertility rate for Jews dropped from 3.17 to 3.03 children per woman, according to the Taub Center’s demography expert, Prof. Alex Weinreb. Among Muslim and Christian women, the decline was greater — from 3.20 to 2.91 among Muslims, and from 2.06 to 1.68 among Christians. Among Druze women, the decrease was from 2.16 to 1.85." However, I haven't seen a good stat for secular Jewish TFR in Israel in a few years.